...et bien sûr passé à côté...

Ca fait longtemps que j'y pense, mais je vais bientôt essayer de lister mes plus beaux bets perdants d'une part, et les plus belles values pas prises d'autre part.
Vous pouvez m'envoyer vos contributions, of course. (j'ai déjà abordé le sujet avec certains d'entre vous pendant les JO où on a été copieusement servis de ce côté-là)

Oh oh oh ! Let's go back to the Euro !
So we have Russia and Spain.
Hiddink has seen in this Euro that his team is great and reliable. Torbinski and Kolodine will miss, so he doesn't have the choice. Agains Netherlands, he saw that his team can be strong more than two hours, so why make some changes ?
On the other side, Aragones does always the same thing : he starts with Xavi and Iniesta, then between the 52' and the 59' he makes two substitutions, with Fabregas and Cazorla for Xavi and Iniesta. 2 leaders out, 2 young leaders in... Whether it's a draw or an easy win, it's the same.

So this bet means that Hiddink will make no substitution between the 46' and the 59' (HT does not count). He made it only once, again Spain for the first game... but Aragones had made a sub before !

There can be an injury so only 5 units.

Domenech declared yesterday that he doesn't like to make too many substitutions. That's true.
For the 1st game of 2006 WC against Switzerland, but also for the most part of qualifying games for Euro 2008, he often decided to make only 1 or 2 substitutions.
Besides, the game against Romania will be hard and he should keep his 11, which is very defensive.
And Henry or Vieira are injuried so he has few solutions for substitutions...

Wtf this odd ? Jelimo is da best, never seen a 800m runner woman so gifted for years... I jump on it.

Singles only. Must run under 9.72 seconds to break World 100 metre record

I think it will be easy.
Bolt beat the World Record saturday in NY in 9.72 seconds. There was rain and wind was strong.
Bolt has already run twice under 9.80 secondes in 3 meetings.
We have three athletes who can beat the WR in 2008 : Bolt (he can do it several times), Asafa Powell and Tyson.
Bolt was not trained for 100m but he beat the WR... now he will train in order to win the 100m in Beijing, so I can't imagine the WR not be beaten again... and just think to the great sums of money that people will give him to beat the WR in several meetings...

Almost no doubt on this one. And maybe Powell will be back and will be very good too...

Big screen to show a crowd scene from Limerick during the match

There was a scandal in 2006 for H Cup final Munster - Biarritz. Big screen in Cardiff stadium had showed crowd scenes from Limerick only, but none for Biarritz.
So Paddypower can think that no crowd scenes will be showed in order to avoid another scandal.
But yesterday night, ERC declared that there will be parity for the crowd scenes between Limerick and Toulouse showed on big screens in the stadium.

So we can think that ERC sent some cameras in Limerick but also in Toulouse. ERC had 2 solutions : no picture or parity for the pictures, and if I believe this news there will be parity, so we will be able to see crowd scenes from Limerick.

Not the maximum amount because there is still a doubt and maybe it will be difficult to know if pictures have been showed or not in the stadium.

Group of 5 : Gevaert/Sturrup/Durst/D.Ferguson/A.Williams

Simply the best and she has just made a great time a week ago in Belgium. Best form and just the best.

Simoni seems to have hidden himself from the cameras until now.
But two days ago he made something enormous on the Time Trial Stage, finishing not so far from Bruseghin & Contador, while everybody was thinking he would be completely beaten.
He always has been there from the beginning, but nobody speaks about him because he doesn't give lots of interviews and he didn't attack in the lesser important stages. Now he will. For sure.

Ok, because some of you don't understand my French explanations, I will speak English, like all of you.
Also stopping a little bit rugby because this is the end of season and too many surprises, like the last week, with a lot of bad results for my bets...
So welcome to other sports : cycling, athletics, swimming, olympics and others !

- Perpignan est la seule équipe à avoir battu Paris à Paris depuis un bail...
- Perpignan a battu Bourgoin à Bourgoin aussi.
- Perpignan a gagné au match aller.
- Perpignan sort d'une série de 10 matches sans défaite achevée par sa défaite à Montauban (28-22) la semaine dernière... L'USAP a failli gagner ce match.
- Perpignan envoie la grosse équipe.
- Il manque Vermeulen et Mignoni à Clermont.
- peut-être de la pluie à prévoir, ce qui favoriserait alors le jeu d'avants de l'USAP.

Cependant attention car Clermont joue à la maison (avantage primordial), vient de battre le BO à Biarritz et n'a perdu qu'un seul de ses 13 derniers matches (la défaite précédente était celle concédée à Perpignan). De plus Tuilagi est absent côté USAP.

25% USAP.

Là il y a vraiment une belle value (espérons que le score la confirme !).
J'ai déjà expliqué quelques raisons dans le post du dessous.
Mais en gros match accroché en perspective, avec pour moi un tout petit léger avantage aux Reds, et un avantage aux Tahs pour la motivation. Presque du 50/50.

Les Reds, même quand ils perdent à la maison, c'est rarement des valises : ils viennent de subir une défaite chez eux face aux Crusaders... mais seulement de 6 points !
Quant aux Tahs, ils ont gagné seulement 2 matches sur 6 à l'extérieur cette saison : 2 victoires par 5 pts et 3 pts d'écart.

Bref, un chaud derby entre 2 équipes accrocheuses, je mise sur une belle résistance des Reds.